Dataset/ Product/ Service

Description

Mandatory function: Long-Range Forecasting

Graphs and maps of model performance in terms of standard skill metrics (LRF).

Methodology: Evaluation of model performance using WMO SVS specifications. A selection of GPC models will be used based on regional skill assessments.

Spatial resolution: 1° x 1°

Temporal resolution: 12 monthly (+1 month lead time) and 12 overlapping 3-month seasons

Quality indicators/Validation: SVS scores

Maps of model long-range predictions (with brief narrative)

Methodology: Post processing of monthly (+1 month lead time) and 3-month seasonal forecasts from selected GPC models. Variables include precipitation and surface temperature. 925 hPa and 850 hPa winds will also be provided if these are assessed to have useful skill. Beyond tercile and standard anomaly forecasts of these variables, products will include probabilistic threshold forecast for different percentiles thresholds (1%,10%,25%,50%,75%,90%,99%-iles) of temperature and precipitation variables. Includes brief narrative of the outlook and a review of the outlook of the previous month.

Spatial resolution: 2.5° x 2.5°

Temporal resolution: 12 monthly (+1 lead time) and 12 3-month overlapping seasons

Quality indicators/Validation: On-time delivery and review of previous month’s outlook

Quarterly bulletins which include: (1) analysing and interpreting GPCs model predictions, (2) assessment and outlook for ENSO and IOD, and (3) qualitative review of recent outlooks/bulletins

Methodology: Qualitative compilation of temperature, precipitation and possibly wind (925 hPa and 850 hPa) seasonal forecasts from the GPC model predictions including assessment of processes that affect the region (e.g. ENSO and IOD). Includes review of the forecast in the previous bulletin.

Spatial resolution: Southeast Asia region

Temporal resolution: Every 3 months of standard seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA and SON)

Quality indicators/Validation: On-time delivery and review of previous season’s outlook

Outlook for number of tropical cyclone in the season ahead (6-months) and preferred tracks based on climatology.

Methodology: Analog method based on historical record.

Temporal resolution: Monthly for 6-months ahead.

Quality indicators/Validation: Statistical evaluation of forecast tropical cyclone frequency.

In the longer term the use of dynamical models for forecast frequency and tracks will be investigated.

Graphs and maps of model performance in terms of standard skill metrics (sub-seasonal).

Methodology: Evaluation of model performance using WMO SVS specifications. A selection of GPC sub-seasonal models will be used based on regional skill assessments.

Spatial resolution: Model-dependent resolution as available in archive

Temporal resolution: Weekly (+1, +2, +3, +4 lead time), at least fortnightly

Quality indicators/Validation: SVS scores

Maps of model sub-seasonal predictions (with brief narrative)

Methodology: Post processing of weekly (+1,+2,+3 and +4 month lead time) sub-seasonal forecasts from selected GPC sub-seasonal models. Variables include precipitation and surface temperature. 925 hPa and 850 hPa winds will also be provided if these are assessed to have useful skill. Beyond ensemble range anomaly forecasts of the variables’ weekly means, products will include appropriate outlook for extremes variables of temperature and precipitation. Includes brief narrative of the outlook and a review of the outlook of the previous 2 weeks (for fortnightly frequency, for previous week otherwise).

Spatial resolution: Model-dependent resolution as available in archive

Temporal resolution: Weekly (+1, +2, +3, +4 lead time), at least fortnightly

Quality indicators/Validation: On-time delivery and review of previous month’s outlook

Monthly bulletins which include: (1) analysing and interpreting GPCs model predictions, (2) assessment and outlook for MJO and other sub-seasonal processes , and (3) qualitative review of recent outlooks/bulletins

Methodology: Qualitative compilation of temperature, precipitation and possibly wind (925 hPa and 850 hPa) seasonal forecasts from the GPC model predictions including assessment of processes that affect the region (e.g. MJO and other sub-seasonal processes). Includes review of the forecast in the previous bulletin.

Spatial resolution: Southeast Asia region

Temporal resolution: Every month

Quality indicators/Validation: On-time delivery and review of previous month’s outlook

Consensus statements: Winter (DJF) and Summer (JJA) Monsoon RCOF bulletins for Southeast Asia

Methodology: Regional consensus on probabilistic temperature and rainfall forecasts from participants of the twice-yearly ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF). Includes assessment of possible impacts on region from ENSO and/or IOD.

Spatial resolution: Third Pole region and South Asia Mountain Region

Temporal resolution: Twice a year ahead of the DJF and JJA Monsoon seasons

Quality indicators/Validation: On-time delivery

Verification datasets

Methodology: Verification datasets provided and updated (Available on request)

Spatial resolution: 1°x1°

Temporal resolution: month

Quality indicators/Validation: dataset availability

Information and guidance on methodologies and products

Methodology: documents available on request on forecasting suite configuration and product computation

Quality indicators/Validation: availability on request

Web Portal/ftp

Methodology: web portal and ftp site with password protected (in preparation)

Temporal resolution: monthly update

Quality indicators/Validation: link availability on request

Dataset/Product/ Service

Methodology, spatial/temporal resolution, quality indicators, validation etc.

Annual Bulletin on the Climate in the Third Pole region

Methodology: compilation of national contributions of TPRCC members. IMD will combine the inputs from all consortium partners from sub-region and produce the bulletin

Spatial resolution: sub-region/national/local

Temporal resolution: yearly

Quality indicators/Validation: internal review

Monthly Climate Monitoring and Assessment of Temperature and Rainfall for Third Pole region

Methodology: development of gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Third Pole region; Establishment of brief qualitative assessment of conditions over the region. Initially contexts will include (mean, max and min ) temperature and rainfall. At later stage this will be enhanced to include additional cryosphere-related ECVs based on deeply data sharing of consortium partners.

Spatial resolution: Resolution based on available near real-time precipitation and temperature observations over the Third Pole region; It is proposed to produce the gridded precipitation and temperature data of Third Pole at 25 km resolution

Temporal resolution: monthly

Quality indicators/Validation: On-time delivery

Temporal resolution: Updated monthly

Quality indicators/Validation: On-time delivery

Data set for reference climatologies (Temperature and Rainfall) based observation and gridded data

Methodology: Calculation of monthly and seasonal climatological normals from the data available

Spatial resolution: stations in the domain of Third Pole region; 0.25°×0.25° (for the maps)

Temporal resolution: monthly (1981-2010 normal period)

Quality indicators/ Validation: Several stages of quality control of the dataset prior to publishing

Climate Watch bulletins for Third Pole region (containing advisories or statements on foreseen climate anomalies)

Methodology: Compilation of all available climate information from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region, other regional centers and GPCs, in accordance with the WMO Guidelines on Climate Watches and agreed procedures by the participating NMHSs from Third Pole region

Temporal resolution: monthly or quarterly.

Quality indicators/ Validation: Timely delivery

Reference: Guidelines on Climate Watches, WMO/TD No. 1269, 2005, WMO

Dataset/Product/ Service

Methodology, spatial/temporal resolution, quality indicators, validation etc.

Time series graphs and maps of daily data and derived indices for extreme events

Methodology : Time series plots and maps of climate parameters and their derived indices, based on the ETCCD Index

Spatial resolution : Point based observation

Temporal resolution: daily, monthly, seasonal, annual.

Quality indicators/ Validation: Quality control mechanism is available for all parameters. Newly inserted data will be quality controlled before made available to user

Daily gridded data (to be developed; Temperature and Rainfall)

Methodology : Spatial interpolation of in-situ observations

Spatial resolution : 0.25°x0.25°

Temporal resolution : daily

Quality indicators/ Validation: Validation using cross-validation type of metric

Dataset/Product/ Service

Methodology, spatial/temporal resolution, quality indicators, validation etc.

Information and guidance on methodologies and products: User guides on products

Methodology: User guides for interpretation of LRF products/outlook provided on the WebPortal., including interpretation of skill and guidance on the limitation of model outlook.

Quality indicators/Validation: Continuous update following feedback from portal users

Coordinate training for multi-Users on interpretation and use of TPRCC products (LRF products, Climate monitoring and diagnosis, Climate dataset and application)

Methodology: On-site or online training on the use and interpretation of the products of the Web Portal. Training will be co-hosted and organized with the Regional Training Center (WMO-RTC) for efficiency purpose. Parts of the training may be given in the form of online training for cost efficiency reason

Quality indicators/Validation: Feedback form for participants of the training